NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart

NFL teams use trade value charts to evaluate the fairness of draft pick trades. These charts assign point values to each pick based on perceived value, allowing GMs to quickly assess whether a trade is balanced.

Two Main Models:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart (1991): Created by the legendary Dallas Cowboys coach, this chart heavily favors early picks. The #1 pick is worth 3,000 points, and values drop dramatically after the first round.
• Rich Hill Chart (2010s): A modern update based on analyzing actual trade data. This chart assigns lower values to top picks and distributes value more evenly, reflecting how teams actually trade in the modern era.

Round 2 (Picks 33-64)

Johnson Range: 580 (pick 33) → 265 (pick 64)

Hill Range: 350 (pick 33) → 200 (pick 64)

Second-round picks retain significant value in both models. The Hill model shows less dramatic drop-off compared to Johnson's steeper curve.

Round 3 (Picks 65-96)

Johnson Range: 260 (pick 65) → 115 (pick 96)

Hill Range: 195 (pick 65) → 115 (pick 96)

Third-round value is where the models start to converge. Teams often find starter-quality players here, making these picks valuable trade assets.

Round 4 (Picks 97-128)

Johnson Range: 112 (pick 97) → 54 (pick 128)

Hill Range: 110 (pick 97) → 65 (pick 128)

Middle rounds are nearly identical in value between models. These picks are often used as "sweeteners" in larger trades.

Rounds 5-7 (Picks 129-262)

Johnson Range: 52 (pick 129) → 2 (pick 262)

Hill Range: 62 (pick 129) → 8 (pick 262)

Late-round picks have minimal trade value but can still produce quality players (see: Tom Brady, pick 199). The Hill model assigns slightly more value to these picks.

Example 1: Moving Up for a QB

Team A gives: Pick #3 (2,200 Johnson / 1,260 Hill)

Team B gives: Pick #10 (1,300 Johnson / 780 Hill) + Pick #40 (500 Johnson / 270 Hill) + Next year's 1st (~600 Johnson / 400 Hill)

Johnson Total: 2,400 vs 2,200 (Team B overpays by 200)

Hill Total: 1,450 vs 1,260 (Team B overpays by 190)

This is a typical "quarterback premium" trade where the team moving up pays extra for positional value.

Example 2: Trading Down for Picks

Team A gives: Pick #12 (1,200 Johnson / 710 Hill)

Team B gives: Pick #22 (780 Johnson / 485 Hill) + Pick #53 (370 Johnson / 230 Hill)

Johnson Total: 1,150 vs 1,200 (Team A loses 50 points of value)

Hill Total: 715 vs 710 (Roughly even)

The Hill model better reflects modern trades where teams trade down for additional picks without massive value loss.

As a Starting Point: GMs use charts as a baseline for negotiations, then adjust based on team needs, draft class strength, and positional value.

Positional Premiums: Teams routinely "overpay" for quarterbacks, edge rushers, and left tackles because positional scarcity isn't reflected in generic charts.

Future Pick Discounting: Future picks are typically discounted 10-20% to account for uncertainty. A future 1st-rounder might be valued as a late 1st/early 2nd in the current draft.

Player-for-Pick Trades: When trading players for picks, teams often use draft charts to estimate equivalent value (e.g., a Pro Bowl player ≈ late 1st round pick).

Analytics Revolution: Some teams now use proprietary models that factor in position, historical hit rates, and team-specific needs rather than relying on standard charts.

• It takes approximately three 2nd-round picks to equal a top-5 pick in the Johnson model
• The entire 7th round combined is worth less than a single 3rd-round pick
• Trading from #32 to #1 would cost approximately four additional 1st-round picks (Johnson model)
• The Hill model better predicts actual trade outcomes since 2010
• No trade chart accounts for team-specific needs or draft class quality
• GMs often use different charts for different trades depending on their negotiating position